Mexico border closure the wildcard of 2026 cattle market

By Editor | February 11, 2026 |

Cattle graze on rye in Marion County. Cattle inventory numbers were expected to rise in USDA’s Jan. 30. report. (Photo by Rhiannon Branch of FarmWeek)

By RHIANNON BRANCH
FarmWeek

Cattle prices remain historically high as the U.S. slowly begins to rebuild its herd amid strong demand, but the direction of the cattle market in 2026 will largely depend on when the border with Mexico is reopened.

Mike Murphy with CattleFax said cattle market fundamentals remain positive so far this year.

“We continue to have very solid demand and that’s been the real driver of our market now for about 18 months,” Murphy told FarmWeek. “Everything is in really good shape from a fed cattle market perspective.”

Herd expansion is underway, and Murphy expects an uptick in USDA’s cattle inventory estimates to be released Jan. 30.

“At the beef cow level, we’re expecting it to be up about 200,000 head at a little over 28 million beef cows,” he said. “Then about the same growth, maybe a freckle more, on the dairy cow number at about 9.55 million cows.”

However, inventory will remain snug until cattle from Mexico are allowed to move north.

“Our major assumption for 2026 is we believe sometime this spring, the Mexican border will reopen and we’ll start seeing a flow of cattle moving north,” Murphy said. “Now, those cattle likely will not be market ready in 2026, but the psychology of the market will change, and it will trade more defensively.”

But, if the border does not reopen in 2026, especially in the spring window, the market will continue to have to ration domestic supply.

“That means that where we have fed slaughter down 600,000 head for the year, it could be down more, and that is a ripple effect,” Murphy said. “Now we wait and see if the administration decides to make a move and get the border open up sometime here this spring.”

USDA reported the number of cattle on feed as of Jan. 1 totaled 11.5 million head, down 3% from a year ago.

Placements into feedlots during December totaled 1.5 million head, down 5%. Marketings of fed cattle last month were pegged at 1.7 million head, up 2% from 2024.

CattleFax will present its formal outlook for 2026 protein and grains during the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association’s Cattle Convention in Nashville in early February.

This story was distributed through a cooperative project between Illinois Farm Bureau and the Illinois Press Association. For more food and farming news, visit FarmWeekNow.com.